Tomorrow marks the return of radio audiences for 2022.

Even in a “previous era”, the results of the first survey of the year were difficult to predict.

In years past (think pre-COVID, climate crisis, impending war), the news cycle was often slow and moderate in the first few weeks and months of a calendar year. As everyone spent the last weeks of summer relaxing, the preference traditionally went to music stations.

One couldn’t exactly describe the start of this year as very relaxing, so will the trend towards summer listening, which usually favors music formats, continue?

In a summer still plagued by stubborn border closures, and even more stubborn cloud cover and rain along the east coast, as well as a desperate push to return to “normal” life, habits travel and social engagements, you’d be forgiven for not knowing where consumers have focused their attention and what formats match their moods.

So here are some numbers, trends and pinch points to watch when tomorrow’s numbers drop.

2DayFM has slightly changed its musical strategy. How is this going to unfold?

Avid listeners and watchers have noted that 2DayFM is now pursuing a different demographic via a revamped music strategy.

It’s now targeting those over 35, with what one former programmer described as a “familiar singalong” playlist.

Southern Cross Austereo (SCA) CEO Grant Blackley recently told Unmade that the station was no longer a top 40 hit.

“By design, we position ourselves above what is KIIS and Nova, and below WS, and substantially below smooth,” he said.

“We are going firmly into this slot. It’s a subtle but noticeable change. We are not going to compete in the top 40 at all.”

This adult contemporary format may aim to be lower than NOVA Entertainment’s smoothfm and ARN’s WSFM, but could it undercut their shares?

In last year’s 8 survey, 2Day had a 3.8% share, while hit stations Nova and KIIS had 6.8% and 8.3% respectively. The older smooth had 7.9%, while WSFM topped the FM pack with 8.8%.

And speaking of 2DayFM, how about its Breakfast show?

A number of former programmers have noted that 2DayFM’s Breakfast show, Morning shift with Hughesy, Ed & Erin, is under-indexed compared to the other time slots of the station.

In last year’s 8 survey, the station had a 3.8% share (a 0.3 point increase), but Breakfast was down to 2.7%, a 0.2 point drop compared to the previous survey.

2Day’s best-performing daytime portion in the 8 of 2021 survey was the afternoon (measured from 12 p.m. to 4 p.m.), with a 4.7% share.

It’s worth keeping an eye out for this trend to continue, especially in light of 2Day’s altered music strategy.

If it continues, a former programmer noted that means the station’s music strategy — not its talent roster — would be what draws listeners to the station.

The show Breakfast launched Survey 1 last year with a 4.4% share, ahead of the station’s overall average of 4.2%.

In each subsequent survey, however, Breakfast performed worse than the station (except for survey 4 where they tied at 3.3%).

The station has been in a steady recovery since its low of 2.6% in the 6 survey, while Breakfast has been languishing below a 3% share since the 5 survey.

SCA Content Director Dave Cameron has repeatedly insisted that he stays up to date The morning shift line-up after years of the station unsuccessfully cutting and changing shows and talent.

It seemed like the only option after years of change and inconsistency, but the rumor mill started turning again when SCA’s LiSTNR platform recruited former Brekky hosts Mike ‘E’ Etheridge and Emma Chow. from ARN’s The Edge to showcase their new digital-focused RnB. Friday Radio.

With Mike E and Emma now in the SCA family, and a new 24/7 digital RnB station, SCA certainly has a number of options should the new 2Day format or the Breakfast show need another shake-up.

Mixing it all up: will anything change in Adelaide?

Another city to watch is Adelaide, a city that one former programmer described as “a very tight music market”.

In last year’s 8 survey, the leading music station was ARN’s Mix 102.3 with a 10.9% share.

The only station that had a lead on it? The ABC at 12.2%.

Since then, however, Mix has nabbed ABC’s Breakfast host Ali Clarke, who held an enviable 17.4% share in Breakfast, well ahead of Mix’s 12.2%.

Mix was described as a “station in disarray” by one observer, given the changing talent line-up (including the disappearance of longtime host Jodie Oddy, the recruitment of her replacement Erin Phillips, and the subsequent departure of Mark ‘Soda’ Soderstrom) and backstage upheaval.

He now has veteran Clarke with relatively new radio rookie Phillips who has the potential to mix up the market.

The other to watch is SCA’s SAFM, which is still connected to Hit Network’s larger strategy, despite returning to its historic branding.

After Investigation 3 last year, SCA’s Cameron admitted that SAFM was still being punished in the market for its failed rebranding to hit107 in 2014.

At the time, the new hit107 targeted young women in their twenties, promising to be “playful, social and colorful” radio.

“We switched brands for seven years, and it was confusing to the public here in Adelaide,” he said last year. “The hit107 brand hasn’t resonated in the market… It’s a change that wasn’t a strong change seven years ago.”

Cameron acknowledged that by reintroducing SAFM in 2020, it would take a few years to bring it back to a leading position in the market.

In the last poll, SAFM had 7.4%, while its Breakfast program of Bec, Cosi & Lehmo had 8.0%.

A former programmer said he expects SAFM to pass this survey.

Who will win the gold medal in Melbourne?

In terms of music stations, there were virtually no RNA GOLD104.3s in Melbourne last year.

It finished Survey 8 with a 10.1% share, well ahead of Smooth’s 8.0%, and even further ahead of the more hits-focused stations Fox (6.6%), Nova (6.2%). ) and KIIS (5.6%). Triple M trailed behind at 4.8%.

A former programmer noted that with the enduring strength of conversation-based 3AW (over 16.6% in the 8 survey) and consistency of GOLD, most other stations are locked in a battle for bronze.

They believe GOLD will only go from strength to strength, with a great breakfast at The Christian O’Connell Show, a strong musical proposition and “no real disabling factor”.

Another noted that Nova 100’s Breakfast show Chrissie, Sam and Browny is likely to be the beneficiary of KIIS’ slow start to the year, with co-host Jase Hawkins on leave for the birth of his child.

Future investigations will reveal whether the Jas and Lauren show, starring Hawkins and Lauren Phillips, may cut through the tight market.

A commentator believes the show had the potential to break through in its previous iteration as a Jas and PJ with Polly ‘PJ’ Harding, but isn’t sure this new show is in the running for the podium.

The results of the race will be revealed tomorrow…

Join The Music Network tomorrow for all the ratings coverage you need. Then, later that day, tune into That’s Entertainment! podcast with Jake and Viv for the scoop on what it all means.